Florida Workforce Housing Network is an independent, all-volunteer, netroots public service project to support quality affordable housing for all Florida families. We do not solicit or accept advertising, donations, fees, grants, commissions, or contract work. [More...]
WASHINGTON, D.C. --- Florida's population growth rate dropped by more than one-third last year, according to new numbers released by the U.S. Census Bureau. MiamiHerald.com posts an Associated Press story with the details:
According to figures released Thursday, the state's population increased by 1.1 percent to 18.3 million. Over the previous 12-month period, the growth rate was 1.8 percent.
Looking the other way...
The Orlando Sentinel credits John Dunbar at AP for its version, which leads off with two paragraphs on Louisiana's population history before somberly inserting:
Florida was the 19th-fastest-growing state -- dropping from 2006 when it was No. 9 in the nation.
The Sentinel's version buries the money quote---from Census Bureau demographer Greg Harper---in the 11th paragraph, and without a word of followup:
"If there's one state that's a little surprising, I would say it's Florida," said [Harper].
Christina Rexroad at sptimes.com (St. Petersburg Times) took a closer look at the Census Bureau's American Community Survey and saw something more profound---a reason Florida population growth is skidding to a stop:
Florida has the largest percentage of renters spending 30 percent or more of their income on rent and utilities, according to the ...Census Bureau.
A rough formula that allocates 30 percent of the family income for housing---including insurance, utilities and taxes---is a rule of thumb planners, financial analysts and bureaucrats use to measure regional economic health.
According to the Census Bureau survey, 52 percent of Florida's 2.1-million renter households pay more than 30 percent of their income for housing, beating out also-rans California, Massachusetts, Nevada and New York.
Nationwide, only 46 percent of renters spend more than 30 percent for housing. Rexroad doesn't ask, but we will: who would want to move to the state where:
Median wages in Florida are $28,570, or about $3,000 less than the national average, according to the state Agency for Workforce Innovation. But the median price of a home, $222,100, is about $14,000 more than the national median.
On a longer-term scale, Florida also has slipped. Estimates dating back to April 2000 have Florida's population growing 14.2 percent, or 2.3 million people, to rise from 16 million people in 2000. Where it previously was the third-fastest-growing state over a seven-year span, this year Florida has slipped to seventh. Its long-term growth was eclipsed by Nevada (28.4 percent), Arizona (23.5 percent), Utah (18.5 percent), Georgia (16.6 percent), Idaho (15.9 percent) and Texas (14.6 percent).
"the bursting housing bubble squelched expansion in some of the nation's fastest-growing states..."
And Roberts focuses on another practical measure of population growth---realignment in Congressional districts after the 2010 census:
If nearly decade-long trends endure, Texas will gain as many as four Congressional seats and Florida's delegation will grow by two, while New York and Ohio will lose two seats each, said Andrew A. Beveridge of Queens College of the City University of New York.
Cox News' Marilyn Geewax at PalmBeachPost.com took a look at the latest Standard & Poore/Case Shiller Home Price Indices released Wednesday to find yet another wet blanket:
The respected measurement showed Miami surpassing Tampa as the big city where values were falling fastest in October. But the news was gloomy across the board, even in formerly healthy markets.
"No matter how you look at these data, it is obvious that the current state of the single-family housing market remains grim," said Robert Shiller, one of the economists who developed the home price report.
PalmBeachPost.com delved a little deeper:
October single-family home prices on the Treasure Coast fell to a median of $201,000 from $242,400 in October 2006, according to the Florida Association of Realtors. The 17 percent drop was the highest-percentage decline in the state. Prices for existing single-family homes in Palm Beach County were off 5 percent, down to $348,300 from $365,600 in the same month a year ago.
The Tallahassee Democrat and Florida Times-Union in Jacksonville have yet to weigh in on the issue.
DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. --- Trailer park residents evicted in 2005 to make way for condos that were never built in Holly Hill, south of Daytona Beach, may number among Florida's homeless or the future homeless, according to Jaimie Ross, Affordable Housing Director at 1000 Friends of Florida in Tallahassee. Jim Haug at news-journalonline.com in Daytona Beach reported the story:
Mike Austin's monthly rent has more than doubled since he was forced out of a trailer park two years ago by a new owner who wanted to build condos.
The freelance photographer, however, feels poetic justice whenever he drives by the vacant land that was formerly the Royal Oak trailer park on Ridgewood Avenue.
The plan to build twin, 15-story condominium towers died with the real estate market crash. For sale signs have sprouted on the green space.
"They're stuck with the land," said Austin. "I'm glad. It's about time the rich man lost everything."
Haug uncovered a little-known Catch-22 in state law:
Under Florida law, cities must demonstrate to the state Department of Community Affairs that mobile home residents can find alternative housing before the cities can rezone or allow the trailer park land to be converted for a new purpose.
In Holly Hill, Forte said the law did not apply in the case of Royal Oak since the owner evicted all of the residents before he asked for a zoning change. Forte said the state Department of Community Affairs did not object to the change in the city's comprehensive plan.
BOCA RATON, Fla. ---Luis F. Perez at (South Florida) Sun-Sentinel.com reported yesterday that Boca Raton city council passed 4-1 a workforce housing ordinance that won't be effective until the housing market picks up again but has enough loopholes to to be ineffective anyway.
Boca Raton mayor Steven Abrams, left, cast the lone dissenting vote with an ominous threat:
...Abrams warned that the city's new work-force housing law could result in 19 apartment complexes going up next to the gated Broken Sound community.
The horror. Abrams was overstating his fear-mongering. The new law doesn't offer near enough incentive for one apartment complex...yet.
The new law provides a whopping 25 percent density bonus for developers who agree to pay into an affordable housing fund or price 10 percent of their new homes affordable to families earning 80-140 percent of median area income.
An upcoming 'study' will determine how little developers will have to pay into the fund to gain the density bonus without building affordable homes, Perez reports.
John Garvin, deputy assistant secretary of HUD's multifamily housing and counselor to the federal housing commissioner, will be featured as the keynote luncheon speaker on January 10.
The agenda includes a look at market conditions, including strategies for developing in high-cost areas, meeting the challenges of condo conversions and serving the elderly and other populations with special needs.
Industry experts will also discuss how they have guided wayward projects to a successful finish and provide guidance on how to develop in high cost areas while at the same time keeping a firm handle on ever increasing construction costs.
Complementing a construction track is a HUD track that is new to this conference and will feature panels discussing the benefits of partnering with HUD, how and why developers are pairing with the government's housing department and what each can expect from such a coupling, as well as an interactive roundtable.
A two-hour debt and equity panel rounds out the conference experience.
Novogradac & Company, which is hosting the event, is offering Florida Workforce Housing Network participants a 20% discount off the 'early bird' conference registration rate of $625. Click here to register online and specify Coupon Code VIP-5015 to receive a $125 discount.
NEW YORK, N.Y. ---Morgan Stanley issued a report last week entitled, "Recession Coming." Its author, Richard B. Berner, left, MS managing director and chief U.S. economist, has a thick portfolio of blueblood formers: he was EVP and chief economist at Mellon Bank, director and senior economist at Salomon Bros., economist for Morgan Guaranty Trust, director of the Washington, DC, office of Wharton Econometrics, economist for the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
Morgan Stanley has issued a full recession alert for the US economy, warning of a sharp slowdown in business investment and a "perfect storm" for consumers as the housing slump spreads.
Berner's report cites four principal factors:
as delinquencies and defaults soar, lenders are tightening credit for commercial, credit card, auto lending, and all mortgage borrowers;
the foreclosure rate on residential mortgages reached a 19-year high of 5.59 percent in the third quarter;
the glut of unsold properties could lead to a 40 percent decrease in housing construction.
overall housing starts will run below one million units in each of the next two years -- a level not seen in the history of the modern data since 1959
although the US job market has apparently held up well, an average monthly [decrease] of 138,000 self-employed workers over the last quarter suggests it may now be buckling.
They say a "mild recession" is now likely, with domestic demand contracting by an average annualized rate of 1% in each of the next three quarters, no growth in overall GDP for the year ending in the third quarter of 2008 and corporate earnings contracting by 5% to 10%.
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. ---1000 Friends of Florida will conduct a live online discussion Friday, Dec. 14, 2007. The topic is one of the most important in Florida:
Toward a Regional Framework:
A Transportation/Land Use Dialogue
Unless you've already registered, you won't be able to participate. The online symposium "has reached capacity and no additional registrations are being accepted," according to the group's web site.
Internet users can access the webcast by logging on at scgov.net and clicking on "Access Sarasota TV Live."
SARASOTA, Fla. ---Sarasota Co. commishers looked density bonuses squarely in the eye and turned and ran for cover Tue. night, Doug Sword at heraldtribune.com reported:
For the second time in five months, Sarasota County commissioners balked at the sheer size of a proposal to build 1,488 homes -- half of them affordable -- east of Interstate 75 off Palmer Boulevard.
Local NIMBY poohbah Don Schultz, chairman of the Bee Ridge Neighborhoods Association, claims neighborhood groups might be more amenable if developer Billy Springer will follow co. commisher Nora Patterson's (left) request to "ratchet down" development to 600 homes, 300 of them affordable.
The issue was tabled---again, this time until Jan. 22.
GAINESVILLE, Fla. --- Alachua Co. commish chairman Rodney J. Long, a Democrat, will host a symposium on affordable housing in the spring and plans to make the issue a cornerstone of his one-year term as chairman.
He may even propose a new tax on legal paperwork---a local 'Sadowski Act'---to help low- to moderate-income residents afford a house, reports Cindy Swirko at Gainesville.com.
Alachua Co. will receive about $1.2 million in SHIP funds this year---about 1/3 the amount due the county before Republican-led Fla. legislators pillaged the Sadowski Affordable Housing Trust Fund. Gainesville will get $974,902, less than half the $2.3 million full Sadowski funding would have permitted.
"The actual scope is a broad one because there is a housing need not only for first-time homebuyers, but homebuyers in general. At the same time, as much as I like to promote home ownership, there is still a need for decent affordable rental housing. There is also becoming a need now for our elderly," Long said. "We will have a housing symposium to discuss the vision for the county here and how we see it. We will have a forum to decide what the needs are and if we are to create such a program, what types of housing programs should we actually target."
MIAMI, Fla. ---Matthew S. Greer has been appointed president of Miami-based Carlisle Development Group, which ranks as the nation's sixth most active developer of affordable housing.
Greer joined Carlisle Development Group in 2004 as an analyst. He was promoted to chief operating officer in 2005 when Carlisle, reporting developments throughout Florida totaling more than 6,000 residential units and more $500 million in total development costs, was named Affordable Multi-Family Developer of the Year by the Latin Builders Assn.
Affordable Housing Finance magazine ranked Carlisle the nation's sixth most active developer of affordable housing last year and the most active Florida developer---in May, 2007, Carlisle reported it started construction of nine affordable housing projects in 2006 and planned to start 22 projects in 2007, with 3,345 multi-family housing units 'in the pipeline.'
Carlisle opened in 1998.
Greer graduated from Ransom Everglades School in Coconut Grove in 1996. He earned a B.A. Degree in History from Columbia College in 2000 and an M.A. Degree in Real Estate from Columbia University in New York in 2003.
Greer lives in Miami Beach and is active in the Hold the Line campaign to protect Miami-Dade County's natural habitats from development, the Young Presidents Organization, the United Way's Young Leaders Group, the Greater Miami Jewish Federation, and Our Kids of Miami-Dade/Monroe.
Yun, who joined NAR eight years ago, earns his keep finding supporting data rosy enough for this:
Existing-home sales are projected to trend up in 2008, with pending home sales showing a slight near-term rise, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of Realtors®. However, a recovery for new-home sales is unlikely before 2009.
Lawrence Yun, [left,] NAR chief economist, said the worst part of the credit crunch has already worked its way through the data. "The unusual mortgage disruptions that peaked in August were clearly seen in lower home sales that were finalized in September and October, so the market was underperforming," he said. "Now that mortgage conditions have improved, some postponed activity should turn up in existing-home sales over the next couple of months, and I expect sales at fairly stable to slightly higher levels."
Complete text of yesterday's NAR news release below...
The U.S. housing market faces an even more severe downturn in 2008 and it could last into 2009, says Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Economy.com.
Thompson's Financial (via Forbes) reports that Zandi was his usual gloomy self at a panel discussion last week at the Office of Thrift Supervision's second annual housing forum.
Zandi said housing markets can take many years to recover, and that it could be well into the next decade before the current market fully corrects itself. He said housing starts should bottom out next year, but said prices will continue to decline thoughout 2008 and 'possibly' into 2009.
Zandi also said the picture could get worse if there is a recession, if lenders fail to increase their rate of modifying loans for struggling borrowers, and if the Fed does not continue to cut rates. He said the current housing market is the worst since the Great Depression, and said the economy is 'probably contracting at the moment.'
NEW PORT RICHEY, Fla. ---Andrew Skerritt at tampabay.com (St. Petersburg Times) thinks teachers in Pasco Co. need bigger paychecks, not housing assistance. Pasco plans to apply for $5 million in CWHIP funds and roll out a community land trust (CLT) to build 50 houses for teachers.
For starters, the district would donate 4 acres near Marlowe Elementary in New Port Richey to secure the state housing grant. There was no talk of down payment assistance - a major obstacle for those trying to buy their first house.
Under Fiorentino's proposal, employees would buy the house, while the district retained ownership of the land. For some employees, that sounds too much like living in a company town or worse - public housing. That is not Fiorentino's intention, but that really doesn't matter.
Skerritt has a problem:
It begs the question: How about paying teachers and school employees enough so they wouldn't have to qualify for such welfare?
We have a problem too. Four acres? Fifty houses? Would that be the tallest building in Pasco Co.?
TUSCALOOSA, Ala. --- Rosebay Homes is a startup modular home builder in Tuscaloosa with an interesting new twist: Rosebay partners with Habitat for Humanity and United Way volunteers to finish the homes once they are trucked and installed on-site.
Michael Gann, vice president for sales and marketing for Rosebay, said a closely guarded method unique to the company allows the homes to be built quickly and inexpensively, but with a level of quality and durability on par with standard site-built housing.
The construction sites are hardly typical - no volunteers hammering away at wood frame structures here. And though the homes themselves are built off-site, the final product is about as far from traditional manufactured housing as one could imagine.
A concrete foundation is dug and laid, then left to cure for 24 days. During the process, the home is built in two separate modules at Rosebay's production facility in Addison.
The finished modules are shipped via truck to the building site, where a crane lifts them onto the foundation.
At this point, the house is 90 percent finished, Gann said. The exterior, which can be painted or done in brick veneer, is then completed, the interior touched up and appliances installed.
In the case of the Black Belt homes, Gann said Habitat for Humanity and United Ways of Alabama volunteers would handle those details.
TAMPA, Fla. ---WUSF-TV Channel 9 aired its video report on the CRED 2007 program and posted the video on YouTube. Click the picture to view the program:
ORLANDO, Fla. ---Mitchell Glasser, left, manager of Housing and Community Development for Orange Co., reports his dept. is fielding about 80 requests a month for down payment assistance, more than double the average 30-35 applications a month last year.
The collapse of the 'subprime' mortgage market has made it far harder for many people to qualify for a home loan, Glasser said, and even those who can often need help with the thousands of dollars required for the down payment and closing costs.
Glasser told co. commishers Orange Co. needs to work harder to prevent foreclosures.
Orange County already works with nonprofit groups such as ACORN, Glasser said, to help with down-payment loans and homebuyer education. Now the county should work closer with such outfits on the foreclosure crisis, he said, to help people who got loans with low "teaser" rates or nothing-down mortgages, or those who bought a more expensive home than they could really afford.
MIAMI, Fla. --- Will Lennar---one of the nation's largest corporate home builders---lead Florida---and the rest of the nation---out of the housing collapse before it wrecks the economy? Lennar is dumping land---lots of it---at 40 cents on the dollar.
Late last night Michael Hinman at bizjournals.com/tampabay(Tampa Bay Business Journal) reported that Lennar sold Metro Development Group of Tampa 8,300 home sites---almost 4,000 acres of land in seven Fla. counties. Neither party disclosed the bargain basement terms. And that's not all:
On Monday, Michael Corkery at WSJ.com(Wall Street Journal) reported that Lennar and Morgan Stanley Real Estate formed a joint venture---MSR Holding Co.---to which Lennar then sold more than 11,000 home sites in 32 communities nationwide for $525 million---half of the reported net book value of $1.3 billion.
Last year, Lennar took a precharge loss of $500 million for land inventory or land under options to purchase. From July through September of this year Lennar told the SEC it had a homebuilding operating loss of $787.7 million and an overall loss of $513.9 million on revenues of just $2.3 billion. or the same period last year, Lennar reported $206.7 million profit on revenues of $3.9 billion---that's a 44 percent drop.
This year's strategy may be even more effective. According to investor analyst Reggie Middleton at SeekingAlpha.com, Lennar's new deal with Morgan Stanley "bought...an extra year before bankruptcy."
But some of us watching the Florida housing market closely think Lennar may be leading the way out of the housing morass.
Corporate home builders---Lennar included---played a major role in Florida's housing bubble and subsequent collapse. Their co-conspirators included the U.S. Federal Reserve Board and U.S. lenders, who spread it around to greedy speculators, equally greedy land owners, contemptible Florida legislators, corrupt local housing officials and just plain stupid local elected officials who pillaged the Florida economy. And over-reaching, under-thinking home buyers were willing pot-stirrers. Everyone got in on the action, including, just as it all peaked, Microsoft's Bill Gates(heh heh).
Well, almost everyone. Most working families who don't already own a home can't afford to buy one in Florida, and as the James Thorner at UnRealEstate blog(St. Petersburg Times) reports, that has even the Florida Chamber Foundation grumbling:
Median home prices have surged 60 percent statewide since 2003, with even larger increases in key markets such as Miami. The median home now costs 6.4 times the average annual salary in the State, compared to a 4.6 ratio in 2003. Housing in Florida is now less affordable than it is nationally and increasingly out of reach for essential services workers and other middle-income earners in the State.
Our orgy of economic expansion has left us with an artificially inflated real estate market so severe that most Floridians today can't afford to buy their own home at market price. Worse, no one else can either, so employers---schools, hospitals and police agencies, not to mention tech companies---are having a tough time recruiting and retaining workers.
For the anti-growth crowd, that's a perfect storm. And there are plenty of signs Florida's perpetual growth is slowing.
Slower growth might be a good thing. But our 'perfect storm' will leave hundreds of thousands of working families exposed to the elements. That can't be good. So what's the answer?
To paraphrase James Carville, 'It's the affordability, stupid.'
Wages and income aren't going to keep pace with housing's artificial inflation. If we're to see sanity restored, values have to come down. That's going to hurt a lot of people, especially those who bought homes over the past three years. It's also going to hurt most of those corporate home builders.
It's in that regard that Lennar may be leading us out of the housing catastrophe. Lennar's bargain basement land sales are flooding the market with home sites. Substantially lower-priced home sites. And that has an impact on the rest of the market. When the price of home sites drops to the $15,000-$30,000 range, we'll see more housing priced in the $150's. No, that's still not 'affordable' to low income families without assistance, but it's a lot closer to 'affordable' than we've seen in a decade.
Now if we could just get the Fed, U.S. lenders, speculators, and especially Fla. legislators, local elected officials and local housing authorities to make similarly radical assessments of their strategies, we might could solve this affordable housing crisis after all.
WASHINGTON, D.C. The Wall Street Journal is reporting in today's edition (via msnbc.com) that major U.S. banks and Bush administration officials are close to an agreement that would freeze interest rats on some subprime adjustable rate mortgages in an effort to stem a wave of mortgage foreclosures expected next year.
Sources with knowledge of the negotiations told the Journal that individual members have agreed to abide by any agreement reached by the coalition, which is called the Hope Now Alliance.
The newspaper said the coalition and the government have largely agreed to extend the lower introductory rate on mortgages for certain borrowers who will have trouble making payments when their mortgages increase.
To be determined, however, are exactly which borrowers would qualify for the freeze and for how long it would last, the Journal said, adding one scenario envisions a freeze lasting as long as seven years.
MIAMI, Fla. ---VEP Housing Developers boast their Urban Club condo is "luxurious yet affordable," but pricing for the 158-unit project "in the heart of Miami's Health District" says something else. It's a dilemma more developers and home builders will face as housing prices continue to deflate faster than their delusions of grandeur.
"As Miami continues to grow, the demand for affordable, workforce housing options increases. With The Urban Club, VEP Housing Developers plan to meet the residential needs of Miami's workforce head on," states Rommel Este, co-developer of the project.
Urban Club's big units---priced at $390,000---offer a scant 1,200 square feet, though you have to give them points for the 'breathtaking views of the Miami River, the downtown Miami skyline and Biscayne Bay.'
Yesterday FloridaHousingNews.net reported that futures traders think prices will fall another 20 percent in Miami in 2008. At $200,000, a 900-square foot 1BR, breathtaking views and all, will be wanting buyers.
To paraphrase our favorite ex-Defense secretary, you go to market with the pricing you have, not the pricing you wish you had. Too many developers still have to figure that out.